Future Climate Change Scenarios

DesignBuilder Climate Analytics climate change predictions are based on the "storylines" and scenario families developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and presented in its Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES, 2000), and the more recent IPCC SRES 2007. An older but more comprehensive report provides more information on the IPCC Emissions Scenarios.

 

The IPCC SRES reports describe new scenarios of the future, and predicts greenhouse gas emissions associated with such developments. These scenarios are based on a thorough review of the literature, the development of narrative "storylines", and the quantification of these storylines with the help of various integrated models from different countries. The scenarios provide the basis for future assessments of climate change and possible response strategies. Future emissions, even in the absence of explicit climate policies, depend very much on the choices people make; how economies are structured, which energy sources are preferred, and how people use available land resources.

 

The SRES scenarios are grouped into four scenario families (A1, A2, B1 and B2) that explore alternative development pathways, covering a wide range of demographic, economic and technological driving forces and resulting GHG emissions. The SRES scenarios do not include additional climate policies above current ones. The emissions projections are widely used in the assessments of future climate change, and their underlying assumptions with respect to socio-economic, demographic and technological change serve as inputs to many recent climate change vulnerability and impact assessments.

Summary of Future Scenarios

In simple terms, the four main storylines combine two sets of divergent tendencies: one set varying between strong economic values and strong environmental values, the other set between increasing globalization and increasing regionalisation . The storylines are summarized as follows:

 

  • A1 storyline and scenario family: high emissions. Globalisation with rapid economic growth - a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. A1 is divided into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy resources (A1T) and a balance across all sources (A1B)
  • A2 storyline and scenario family: medium-high emissions. Regionalisation with regionally oriented economic development - a very heterogeneous world with continuously increasing global population and regionally oriented economic growth that is more fragmented and slower than in other storylines.
  • B1 storyline and scenario family: low emissions. Globalisation with global environmental sustainability - a convergent world with the same global population as in the A1 storyline but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies.
  • B2 storyline and scenario family: medium-low emissions. A world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, with continuously increasing population (lower than A2) and intermediate economic development.

 

 

The above 4 images summarise the main scenario groups, showing total global annual CO2 emissions from all sources (energy, industry, and land-use change) from 1990 to 2100 (in GtC/yr):

 

  1. A1 scenario group including 3 sub scenarios:

    • fossil-intensive A1FI (comprising the high-coal and high-oil-andgas scenarios),

    • predominantly non-fossil fuel A1T,

    • balanced A1B.

  2. A2 scenario group.

  3. B1 scenario group.

  4. B2 scenario group.

 

Each coloured emission band shows the range of "harmonized" and "non-harmonized" scenarios within each group. For each of the six scenario groups an illustrative scenario is provided, including the four illustrative marker scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2, solid lines) and two illustrative scenarios for A1FI and A1T (dashed lines). Source: IPCC.

 

The image below from Narccap shows an example of how surface global warming temperature increases are represented for the various scenarios.

 

 

You can find a summary of the SRES emissions scenarios here.

 

The 4 main storylines and scenario families are described in more detail below.

 

The main purposes of socio-economic scenarios in the assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and vulnerability are:

 

  • to characterise the demographic, socio-economic and technological driving forces underlying anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions which cause climate change; and
  • to characterise the sensitivity, adaptive capacity and vulnerability of social and economic systems in relation to climate change.

 

Note that no probabilities are attached to any of these scenarios and there is no single most likely or best-guess scenario.

 

Additional scenarios defined by IPCC include:

 

  • 1PTO2X and 1PTO4X "idealised" case where the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased by 1 percent per year from pre-industrial concentration until reaching 2x and 4x the original concentration.

A1 Scenario

The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B). Balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end-use technologies.

 

The A1 storyline is a case of rapid and successful economic development, in which regional average income per capita converge - current distinctions between "poor" and "rich" countries eventually dissolve. The primary dynamics are:


  • Strong commitment to market-based solutions.

  • High savings and commitment to education at the household level.

  • High rates of investment and innovation in education, technology, and institutions at the national and international levels.

  • International mobility of people, ideas, and technology.

 

The transition to economic convergence results from advances in transport and communication technology, shifts in national policies on immigration and education, and international cooperation in the development of national and international institutions that enhance productivity growth and technology diffusion.

 

In the A1 scenario family, demographic and economic trends are closely linked, as affluence is correlated with long life and small families (low mortality and low fertility). Global population grows to some nine billion by 2050 and declines to about seven billion by 2100. Average age increases, with the needs of retired people met mainly through their accumulated savings in private pension systems.

 

The global economy expands at an average annual rate of about 3% to 2100, reaching around US$550 trillion (all dollar amounts herein are expressed in 1990 dollars, unless stated otherwise). This is approximately the same as average global growth since 1850, although the conditions that lead to this global growth in productivity and per capita incomes in the scenario are unparalleled in history. Global average income per capita reaches about US$21,000 by 2050. While the high average level of income per capita contributes to a great improvement in the overall health and social conditions of the majority of people, this world is not necessarily devoid of problems. In particular, many communities could face some of the problems of social exclusion encountered in the wealthiest countries during the 20th century, and in many places income growth could produce increased pressure on the global commons.

 

Energy and mineral resources are abundant in this scenario family because of rapid technical progress, which both reduces the resources needed to produce a given level of output and increases the economically recoverable reserves. Final energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP) decreases at an average annual rate of 1.3%. Environmental amenities are valued and rapid technological progress "frees" natural resources currently devoted to provision of human needs for other purposes. The concept of environmental quality changes in this storyline from the current emphasis on "conservation" of nature to active "management" of natural and environmental services, which increases ecologic resilience.

 

With the rapid increase in income, dietary patterns shift initially toward increased consumption of meat and dairy products, but may decrease subsequently with increasing emphasis on the health of an aging society. High incomes also translate into high car ownership, sprawling suburbia, and dense transport networks, nationally and internationally.

 

Several scenario groups considered in the A1 scenario family reflect uncertainty in the development of energy sources and conversion technologies in this rapidly changing world. Some scenario groups evolve along the carbon-intensive energy path consistent with the current development strategy of countries with abundant domestic coal resources. Other scenario groups intensify the dependence on (unconventional) oil and (in the longer-run) natural-gas resources. A third group envisages a stronger shift toward renewable energy sources and conceivably also toward nuclear energy. A fourth group (which includes the A1B marker scenario) assumes a balanced mix of technologies and supply sources, with technology improvements and resource assumptions such that no single source of energy is overly dominant. The implications of these alternative development paths for future GHG emissions are challenging: the emissions vary from the carbon-intensive to decarbonization paths by at least as much as the variation of all the other driving forces across the other SRES scenarios.

A2 Scenario

The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change more fragmented and slower than other storylines.

See also: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=94

 

Compared to the A1 storyline it is characterized by lower trade flows, relatively slow capital stock turnover, and slower technological change. The A2 world "consolidates" into a series of economic regions. Self-reliance in terms of resources and less emphasis on economic, social, and cultural interactions between regions are characteristic for this future. Economic growth is uneven and the income gap between now-industrialized and developing parts of the world does not narrow, unlike in the A1 and B1 scenario families.

 

The A2 world has less international cooperation than the A1 or B1 worlds. People, ideas, and capital are less mobile so that technology diffuses more slowly than in the other scenario families. International disparities in productivity, and hence income per capita, are largely maintained or increased in absolute terms. With the emphasis on family and community life, fertility rates decline relatively slowly, which makes the A2 population the largest among the storylines (15 billion by 2100). Global average per capita income in A2 is low relative to other storylines (especially A1 and B1), reaching about US$7200 per capita by 2050 and US$16,000 in 2100. By 2100 the global GDP reaches about US$250 trillion. Technological change in the A2 scenario world is also more heterogeneous than that in A1. It is more rapid than average in some regions and slower in others, as industry adjusts to local resource endowments, culture, and education levels. Regions with abundant energy and mineral resources evolve more resource-intensive economies, while those poor in resources place a very high priority on minimizing import dependence through technological innovation to improve resource efficiency and make use of substitute inputs. The fuel mix in different regions is determined primarily by resource availability. High-income but resource-poor regions shift toward advanced post-fossil technologies (renewables or nuclear), while low-income resource-rich regions generally rely on older fossil technologies. Final energy intensities in A2 decline with a pace of 0.5 to 0.7% per year.

 

In the A2 world, social and political structures diversify; some regions move toward stronger welfare systems and reduced income inequality, while others move toward "leaner" government and more heterogeneous income distributions. With substantial food requirements, agricultural productivity in the A2 world is one of the main focus areas for innovation and research, development, and deployment (RD&D) efforts, and environmental concerns. Initial high levels of soil erosion and water pollution are eventually eased through the local development of more sustainable high-yield agriculture. Although attention is given to potential local and regional environmental damage, it is not uniform across regions. Global environmental concerns are relatively weak, although attempts are made to bring regional and local pollution under control and to maintain environmental amenities.

B1 Scenario

The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved social equity, but without additional climate initiatives.

 

The central elements of the B1 future are a high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development. Heightened environmental consciousness might be brought about by clear evidence that impacts of natural resource use, such as deforestation, soil depletion, over-fishing, and global and regional pollution, pose a serious threat to the continuation of human life on Earth. In the B1 storyline, governments, businesses, the media, and the public pay increased attention to the environmental and social aspects of development. Technological change plays an important role. At the same time, however, the storyline does not include any climate policies, to reflect the SRES terms of reference. Nevertheless, such a possible future cannot be ruled out.

B2 Scenario

The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the A1 and B1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.

 

The B2 world is one of increased concern for environmental and social sustainability compared to the A2 storyline. Increasingly, government policies and business strategies at the national and local levels are influenced by environmentally aware citizens, with a trend toward local self-reliance and stronger communities. International institutions decline in importance, with a shift toward local and regional decision-making structures and institutions. Human welfare, equality, and environmental protection all have high priority, and they are addressed through community-based social solutions in addition to technical solutions, although implementation rates vary across regions.